Friday, January 4, 2008

#80 - Iowa Analysis and Implications

Winners: Barack Obama, Mike Huckabee, Fred Thompson

Losers: Hillary Clinton, Mitt Romney, Rudy Giuliani

No Longer with Us: Biden, Dodd

No Gain/Loss: Ron Paul, Bill Richardson, John Edwards, John Mccain

Things we Learned:

"Rage Against the Machine" - The American voters has rebelled against the candidates perceived as "establishment" candidates (Clinton, Romney, Giuliani) and went for perceived "change" candidates Obama and Huckabee.

" Spambots can Vote" - If you told anyone a few weeks ago that Ron Paul would register any votes, much less 10% to almost beat Mccain and Thompson for 3rd they would of called you crazy. Ron Paul doing twice as well as Giuliani is the kiss of death to the Giuliani campaign.

"Hillary of Glass" - she got shattered and it hurt, can she turn it around?

"Independents and youth in full force" - The election the old guard has been fearing has finally come. Huge disparity among the youth/old vote in Obamas win. How this will effect the republicans will be shown in NH since Iowa was more decided by evangelicals than any generation divide. Although Ron Paul was shown to dominate the youth and independent vote for the republicans, which raises expectations in New Hampshire.

"Wyoming?" - Suddenly everyone realizes Wyoming has a republican Caucus on Saturday

The Path to victory, each candidate:

SUMMARY: Must win an Early state to stay in the Race

Mike Huckabee: The Iowa win must translate into wins across the board since has no resources to really continue his movement. Strong showing in South Carolina is a must to stay in the race.

Mitt Romney: Must beat Mccain in New Hampshire to continue to be perceived viable, though could recover from such a loss and stay in the race if he can win at least win 1 early state, though NH is really his final and best shot.

Fred Thompson: Where did his third place showing come from? Huge resurgence of a candidate we all brushed off. This must be capitalized with a win in South Carolina or Thompson will to be dead in the water.

John Mccain: Most people still shocked by the Mccain comeback, a good showing in Iowa that was neutralized by Thompsons comeback. Mccain like most of the republican candidates is low on resources so a win on NH is necessary.

Ron Paul: A decent showing in Iowa showing that people will turnout for Paul, especially in Iowa which is 2nd to Florida as the state Ron Paul has payed the least attention to. Ron Pauls best chances at a win are NH and NV yet he has had the resources to campaign well in all the early states so he'll be a factor in each and every race. He has the resources to stay till Super tuesday no matter what so the implications of this will be more clear after NH and NV. Although Ron Pauls appeal to independents shows if need be he'd be quite viable as the Libertarian candidate.

Rudy Giuliani: Florida is Giulianis last stand, period.

Duncan Hunter: Unless he can shock everyone in Wyoming there is no hope.

Republican Summary: Romney and Giuliani were hurt real bad, but the rest of the pack lack the resources to stay in the race despite strong showings. Due to this, Ron Paul can rise as the anti-establishment candidate after Huckabee and Mccain go broke. Good things come to those who wait.


Barack Obama: Another win in NH will solidify his momentum and probably the nomination. Though with NH being an anti-tax libertarian state, I don't think he'll capture as many independents this time around cause we're dealing with a very different kind of independent.

John Edwards: Need to stay top 3 in the early contests, and hope for a big super tuesday.

Hillary Clinton: Must stop Obamas momentum somewhere along the early states.

Bill Richardson: Just needs to keep doing what he'd doing and hope for an upset somewhere, which is highly unlikely

Democrat Summary: I think it'd be a safe bet that Obama has got the nomination, and with the democratic turnout destroying the republican turnout that we're looking at a one sided race unless the republicans can provide an equally widely likeable candidate (Ron Paul?). Since the independents and youth are playing a role, a third party or independent candidate has some room to play a role.

1 comment:

me said...

"and with the democratic turnout destroying the republican turnout that we're looking at a one sided race unless the republicans can provide an equally widely likeable candidate (Ron Paul?)."
The Republicans also need to consider that many or most of his supporters will not vote for a different Republican just to stay with the party. They've read too much online about how the party operates and are too angry (see CNN entrance polls.. 54% of those angry with Bush voted for Paul) to vote GOP if he isn't on the ticket. What this means is if Paul isn't in the picture the GOP could lose 5+% of their already diminished potential voter base and the Democrats will have a much easier time defeating them in Nov.

The Paul campaign also has the most money on hand for campaigning for super Tuesday. So he'll continue to whittle away at the other Republicans and this will help the Dems.

The Republicans have a serious problem on their hands.. allow the media to force Huck onto the ballet and have a battle of the evangelicals vs. the liberals (and the online gamblers are giving ~60% odds of the Dems winning) or quietly get the Paul supporters on their side. Allowing him to be excluded from a debate only fuels the passion of the Paul supporters to fight against the GOP.