Saturday, January 5, 2008

#81 - Ron Paul Third in NH/Early State Analysis

In the latest Rasmussen Poll, Ron Paul is polling a very high 3rd in NH. Mccain is still on top but I think with his statements in this video spreading you'll see a drop in his support. With so many states having their results in January let's take a look at Ron Pauls chances in each state.

New Hampshire - Ron Paul is polling high in this state, and it's a state where independents are known to swing the vote in all sorts of directions. Buchanan was polling 14% (Paul currently @ 14%) before he won with 28% of the vote, Buchanan and Paul share many of the same supporter so this could happen again.

Michigan - Since there is no Democratic delegates up for grabs, the dem candidates have abandoned Michigan which mean we won't see Obamas vacuum of independent votes which leaves room for Ron Paul to win the swing vote here too. The republican delegates are low here so none of the candidates have really done much in Michigan.

South Carolina - A conservative stronghold, I'm not sure what to expect. Ron Paul isn't polling to bad though so it's possible for a top 3 showing for Paul.

Nevada - On the same day as South Carolina, it has been abadoned by all the candidates and the state has really embraced Ron Paul. This is Ron Pauls best chance for win in the early states.

Maine - I have no idea, no one has any news about maine.

Florida - Florida is gonna be a war against Giuliani, but again dems will not be in Florida due controversy with the DNC. Ron Paul if he can capture the independent vote could possibly kill Giulianis chances and at this point be propelled to a super super tuesday.

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