Wednesday, December 19, 2007

#44 - Ron Paul Analysis as of Now

Hey Guys,

Things are going pretty well, we are a pretty strong 7% in the polls. The Ron Paul camp has a lot going for it as super strong support in NH and NV, and growing support in IA. Ron Paul is looking like he will take 3rd in IA which is an upset to any expectation months ago, yet if weather is bad and turnout is low for Huck and Mitt there's a possibility of 1st or 2nd showing in Iowa. A minimum of a third place showing will give the momentum that could assure a all out win in NH. NV is looking more and more to be Ron Pauls outright despite polls. Florida and South Carolina will be uphill battles against Giuliani and Thompson respectively, yet Ron Paul is doing beyond expectations in both states and I would predict a minimum of 3rd in both states. Overall, taking things like poll methodology and straw poll turnouts into consideration, Paul is increasingly ready for upsets in all of the early state.

Now that Ron Paul for sure is staying in at least till Feb 5th, this creates a whole new advantage for Paul. Since most of the candidates except Giuliani have completely ignored the non-early states. Yet, Pauls grassroots supporters have done a good job of keeping a presence in all these states while the campaign floods the early states with ads and direct mail, which other candidates don't have the luxury of either. So even if by some fluke something goes wrong in the early states expect a huge upset on super Tuesday cause of a super head start in campaigning from the grassroots.

things are looking good, we just need to reaching out to the detractors I outlined in the previous post.

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