Sunday, December 2, 2007

#9 - Polls show an extremly close race

Hey Guys,

In the latest Rasmussen Daily Tracking Poll we see some interesting development that really shake the dynamics of the race. So let's go candidate by candidate and do a bit of an analysis of what they got going.

Giuliani 22% - Giuliani along with Romney continue their downward trend in the poll losing their clear frontrunner status. These two continue to slander each other while the rest of the pack lets them destroy each other. At this rate Huckabee will surpass Giuliani by mid December and leave the entire GOP base split with the top five between 10-20% of the vote each. The biggest problem Giuliani has by losing his frontrunner poll status will be that he will have no wiggle room from the hurt of losing most of the early states since he has ignored them compared to other candidates.

Huckabee 17% - I won't lie, the rise of Huckabee shows an alarming new sentiment in the republican party that seems ok with tax hikes and excessive spending. I'm not one to deny Huckabees charm, not even Rolling Stone denies his charm. Huckabee is now almost assured the victory in Iowa and will probably become the new guy to beat. How does Huckabee continue to keep everyone under his spell is beyond me.

Fred Thompson 14% - After a drop, Thompson is now back tied for third with Mccain. Thompson can regain some momentum by his performance in the south. While his efforts on Social Security are important, his lack of attention to more "visible" issues such as the war and economy have made him "invisible" to the electorate.

John Mccain 14% - John Mccain enjoying a surge in media attention after his calculated attack on Ron Paul at the CNN debate is climbing back up will probably surpass Thompson after his myspace/MTV appearance. Still Mccains slanderous and historical revision of WWII against Ron Paul has made me lose respect for the senator who I've usually held in high esteem. Mccain is relying on NH onces again for momentum but Ron Paul is offering independent voters a much more unique choice which will probably be Mccains downfall which probably prompted his attack.

Mitt Romney 11% - In one of the most not so shocking events, Mitt Romney has dropped i a week from 2nd to 5th and in risk of being surpassed by Ron Paul. This is mainly due to what was a abysmal debate performance and scandalous Straw Paul victory in St. Petersburg. Romney can stay in the race if he can hold on to second in Iowa, but at this rate Ron Paul can possibly challenge Romney for 2nd in Iowa.

Ron Paul 6% - it's was only a month and half ago when Ron Paul was at 2% and he's now tripled his following and continue to grow at a very steady pace with a strong grassroots movement. Ron Paul with his fundraising growth has run a very balance campaign among the early states and has jumped from around 2% to 7-8% in just about ALL the early states. If he continues at this pace he's likely to win many of the early states or place in the top 3 in all of them. A New Hampshire win would cement Ron Paul as a front runner, and he's paving the way for what could be an upset 2nd/3rd place in Iowa. Expect some more growth after his appearance on The View this week.

Conclusion: With no clear lead this race is gonna boil down to one factor, Turnout. A popular indicator of Turnout is Straw Polls and Rallys, and Ron Paul has dominated this realm by leaps and bounds. If Ron Paul an keep his poll steadily going up he may pull off one of the most historic presidential bids in history. Ron Paul greatest threat is Huckabee who's the only other candidate showing the same surging growth as poll. Many people feel these two represent the two halfs of the Republican party.

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