Tuesday, January 8, 2008

#86 - Ron Paul People, the worst is over

Hey Guys the worst is over, we just survived two states where every candidate had massive organizations and staffs at work for the last 6 months with a lot of people hired to motivate voters to the polls. Luckily, this is no longer the case in the rest of the states here on out. In IA and NH you had a presence from ALL the candidates and it's all they can afford.

Huckabee and Mccain can't afford to rally and organize their voters in any states other than IA and NH, and Romney is suffering but betting the horse on those two states. So now Romney is scrambling to organize last minute in other states while the rest can't afford to do so while Ron Pauls grassroots has been strong in every state. Turnout will be lower here on out in many states for many reasons which puts the ball back in Ron Pauls court. We have massive voting, but high turnout has diluted our percentages.

- Michigan will have no campaigning from dems since there's no delegates at stake, and most of GOP is going straight for South Carolina except Romney who is attempting to rally Michigan for some much needed momentum. ROn Paul is the only candidate with an HQ and organization, Romney can rally but we'll have the organization to turnout the vote in a state the media doesn't care about making the turnout reallllly low.

- Nevada is being ignored by candidates due to being on the same day as South Carolina, and again Paul is only candidate with the organization there to turn out the vote. Super low turnouts will occur due to the switch from a primary to a caucus which will catch many likely voter off guard.

- South Carolina is a state that will respond to Ron Pauls federalist message, we'll see. Turnout may backfire on us again at this state since the media blitz will be here as well and the dem race motivates people to the polls and Obama eats up swing voters.

- Again a media blitz and possible high turnout works against us, but the lack of the dems pressence leaves the swing voters all to Ron Paul since Mccain doesn't have the money to reach Florida independents. Can we beat Giuliani at his stronghold?

- Florida is so close to super Tuesday I doubt any candidate will have enough time to organize anything in these states, Luckily Ron Paul has been running ads in many of these states and the grassroots is a lot more organization than many of the candidates have the luxury of having. Super low turnout and high RP turnout is a good mix for super Tuesday.

It's still anyones game, this is a game of endurance and everyone else has been sprinting but we're going at a safe pace.


Lars said...

Thanks for this perspective. Your point about low turnout is an important one. It made me think that we may actually be damaging our own campaign by making as much noise as we have been making. Quiet conversations with people in our local area and positive comments to our local newspapers may work better than loud demonstrations that may just get our opponents the reason they need to get to the polls. Support to the local newspapers who support us is what we work on at www.WhatTheySayAboutRonPaul.com. I have added a link to your article.

Fab said...

I really needed to read this perspective. My high motivation has diminished somewhat after both Iowa and New Hampshire. Then to read all the negative spins on those old Ron Paul newsletters really punched me in the gut. I hope you are onto something. Thanks for keeping up the battle for freedom.