#20 - Poll Watch: Huckabee vs. Ron Paul

Hey Guys,

A Couple of posts ago I discussed that with Huckabees rise he'll become the target of the other 4 frontrunners and be knocked down a peg, which in other posts I've predicted will end in a fist for fist fight between Huckabee and Ron Paul. Again, these are the ONLY two candidates showing positive growth in the polls. Let's recap on the other candidates.

Romney - His early states strategy has been destroyed by Huckabee in IA and Paul in NH and he's suffered a painful drop in the polls due to a weak record and poor CNN debate performance. No one cares about Romney and his upcoming faith speech won't help to win back the evangelicals who found a comfortable home in Huckabee.

Giuliani - aside from being too decadent for your typical republican voter, his staunch pro-war views have earned a very placid and apathetic following waiting for something better. Judging from his and Romneys huge fall from grace and the rise of Ron Paul and Huckabee we are starting to see who the people see as truly representing their ideals. Again, no one cares about Giuliani.

Mccain - Mccain is supposed to be the rouge anti-establishment candidate, and Ron Paul has taken this from him with his anti-war, pro-liberty stance and made him look like another DC crone. We admire Mccains forthright attitude on torture but he offers very little in any real differentiation. Mccain might do better than we might think if Giuliani and Romney keep plummeting but Mccain is pretty much stuck where he is.

Thompson - Thompson is a good guy, he's pretty steadfast to speak for social security and entitlement reform, but these aren't issues that the American public are really passionate about. Plus the space for the Reagan like small government underdog again got filled by Ron Paul before Thompson entered the race. Ron Paul now making way in Thompson's last hope, South Carolina. It's gonna be a battle between these two in SC, and only one candidate will walk out alive. Thompson like Mccain is stuck where he is doomed to hope all the other candidates destroy each other.

Essentially Mccain and Thompsons role in the election now are only to serve as Roadblocks to Ron Paul as he makes way for what will be an epic confrontation with the Huckster. If Paul can place well in Iowa, beat Mccain in NH, and then beat Thompson in SC we'll be well on our way to a roller coaster super tuesday counter our Huck vs. Paul tallys.

The polls create a very distinct problem for Huckabee aside from now being in the crosshairs of every nominee. Frontrunner status will kill his turnout. Huckabee supporters will be growing smug that Huckabee has the race locked down and many won't vote due to their security that they got it in the bag. Ron Paul supporters on the other hand have been proven to turnout and no matter what the poll numbers say will be a force to deal with cause of this factor. Ron Pauls graceful and well paced rise continues while Huckabee peaks and leaves himself open for fire.

December will be a month to remember.